This post was going to be about my finishing order prediction for the opening race in Australia in a couple of days, however when I sat down to do this I found it incredibly hard to do so, having placed at least half of the grid as possible podium botherers in my head I decided I couldn’t separate them as clearly as I would like, so you have this post instead.
I see great potential in pretty much every team this year, which is one of the reasons that 2009 is such an exciting prospect for me, as you can probably tell by the following I might be a bit idealistic in some places right now - but I really do feel it’s quite hard to separate them at the moment.
- Brawn
- Out front, leading with a gap of around 3/10ths per lap finishing with both cars about 15 seconds up the road from the next car. The leading driver of the two? I’d have to say Button, but I can’t see Barrichello making it easy for him.
- Ferrari
- Probably the strongest podium contenders from the rest of the field, with my heart also hoping that a KERS assisted Kimi makes things very difficult for those around him to really show us what the 2009 regulations have in store for the rest of the season.
- Williams
- I seriously think this could be a strong year for Williams. There is still no confirmation (as far as I’m aware) on whether they’ll be using their different KERS system, which I’m lead to believe is far lighter and simpler than the rest. Either way I just can’t write off a repeat of Rosberg’s podium from 2008.
- Toyota
- Have been showing strong form and look like possible podium contenders, with the revelation that it was a very close call between them staying in F1 or following Honda out of the door, they really need to make 2009 count.
- Red Bull
- They have not really featured much on my testing radar other than having a fantastic looking car with some nice touches. However I can’t help but feel that if all the clever stuff is right on the car it won’t be long before they’re on the podium and reaching for their first win, and Webber has been strong at his home race in the past.
- BMW
- Another team that has been quiet in testing, but if they’re doing the same thing as prior to 2008 you’ve got to say they’re in with a chance of podiums again at least.
- McLaren
- I personally feel that McLaren made some clear steps forwarding in the final test, and although they have started to publicly play down their chances for the opening races I can’t see them being as bad as their initial testing performance suggested. Maybe not quite bothering the podium in Australia, but probably not too far off.
- Renault
- They’ve had a consistent pace with a showing of speed a couple of times (with both Fernando and Nelson at the wheel — so it’s not just the Fernando factor), most likely behind Brawn and Ferrari, but I could quite easily see Fernando grab a podium at Australia.
- Force India
- Their 2009 package is a clear improvement over their offerings for the last few years, they’ll probably still be at the rear but not as far off as in 2008 and may even mingle deeper in the mid field.
- Torro Rosso
- I totally forgot about Torro Rosso in my original post, I guess that tells you my expectations of them for the start of 2009. I really don’t know much about Buemi but Torro Rosso were very quick to snap him up while leaving Bordais hanging, who I really like — but not sure how well he’ll be able to do at Torro Rosso. Hopefully the podium at Sebring this weekend will have warmed him up, but it doesn’t give him much time to acclimatise to the Aussie timezone.
What about reliability? I think that the season opener does see a higher number of reliability-related DNF’s just because it’s the first real full-on punishment that the cars get to experience. However with the further reduction in the rev limit (now down to 18,000 from 19,000 last year) on engines that were designed to be tipping the 20,000’s revs the engines must have it easier than ever in F1. Obviously look out for the teams that are using KERS, as that, and the associated forces of suddenly getting an extra kick in the rear when you the button is pushed, will probably be the weak point early in the season. And finally there is a strong chance that a few of those wide front wings will litter the track early on in the race.
So there are my predictions, I think that’s 8/10 teams that I’d say have a shot at the podium in Australia. So in reality it’s probably going to be a very tight midfield with Brawn and another team (I would dearly wish it were Williams or Red Bull, but probably Ferrari) leading. All this is of course without seeing how the 2009 cars deal with racing & following each other while adjusting their wings and pressing the "boost" button — how much they will affect things no-one is sure of.
I think that is as far as I can be pressed on the situation until 2nd practice on Friday, roll on Friday I say!
Update: I totally missed out Torro Rosso, have now added them.